【乐从钢材价格】是什么刺激了钢价要“暴饮暴食”？

2021年的钢材价格一路狂奔，单日破百，走出暴涨暴跌、大起大落的格局，不少老铁们被这飘忽的钢价弄的不知所云，到底是怎么回事呢？

In 2021, steel prices run all the way, one day broke 100, out of the pattern of rise and collapse, ups and downs, many old iron by this drifting steel price, what is going on?

在2021年1月份一吨普通的钢材大概是5000块钱左右，可是在2021年的5月创出历史新高，国内最缺钢的时候，一吨的价格就能卖到7000多块钱。短短的4-5个月时间，钢铁价格持续上涨，不管买了钢材，还是买了钢材的股票，轻松就可以赚30%以上的钱。

In January 2021, a ton of ordinary steel was about 5,000 yuan, but it hit a record high in May 2021, with the most shortage of steel in China, the price of a ton could be sold to more than 7,000 yuan.In just 4-5 months, steel prices continue to rise, whether you buy steel, or you buy steel stocks, you can easily make more than 30% of the money.

在10月中旬后，国内钢铁期货和现货价格一改此前的高位震荡走势，双双出现大幅回落难道是跌久必涨，涨久必跌的定律吗？

In the middle of October, domestic steel futures and spot prices changed the previous high shock trend, both appeared sharply fall is a long will rise, rise long will fall the law?

煤炭价格突破历年的高点600元/吨，国庆节前动力煤主力合约涨至1408元/吨，焦炭、焦煤价格在强势上涨后，也屡破历史记录。国庆节后，动力煤的强势上涨，带动了钢铁原料价格的上涨，国内大规模限电预期，更使得钢材期货市场多头有恃无恐。而且动力煤价格的暴涨已经严重影响到国计民生，国家重拳出击，总理在世界经济论坛会议上再次提及要做好煤炭保供稳价工作，缓解能源供应紧张，打压煤炭价格力度空前，并上升到法律层面。动力煤价格从10月19日的1982元/吨跌到11月2日的841元/吨，11个交易日下跌1100多点。

Coal prices broke through the previous high of 600 yuan / ton, before the National Day thermal coal main contract rose to 1408 yuan / ton, coke, coking coal prices in a strong rise, but also repeatedly broke the historical record.After the National Day, the strong rise of thermal coal, led to the rise of steel raw material prices, the domestic large-scale power limit is expected, more make the steel futures market bulls have to rely on.Moreover, the surge in thermal coal prices has seriously affected the national economy and people's livelihood. The country has hit hard. At the World Economic Forum, the premier once again mentioned to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, ease the energy supply shortage, suppress coal prices with unprecedented efforts, and rise to the legal level.The price of thermal coal fell from 1,982 yuan / ton on October 19 to 841 yuan / ton on November 2, down more than 1,100 yuan in 11 trading days.

在11月份，全月走势呈现“大幅下探，低位回涨”，上半月黑色系期货集体回调，原料价格轮番下跌，需求季节性转弱，现货市场涨少跌多，价格重心整体下移；下半月宏观面出现暖意，黑色系期货超跌反弹，加之各地钢厂纷纷托市，市场情绪得到提振，现货价格低位回升，在这个过程中，局部需求也有好转。

In November, the whole month trend showed "sharply down, low rise", the first half of the black futures collective pullback, raw material prices fell in turn, the demand seasonal weaker, spot market rose less fell more, the overall price center of gravity down; the second half of the macro warm, black futures rebound, together with the market sentiment is boosted, spot price low recovery, in this process, local demand also improved.

分析师说钢价大跌的原因有三点：1.受限产和洪水影响，山西、陕西等地煤企的开工率有所降低，煤炭供给下降一定程度推高了煤价；2.过高的煤价导致了下游采购成本增高，引起了如断电、工业生产成本上涨等连锁反应；3.国家多方出手调控煤价：增加煤炭供给，查处囤积居奇、哄抬物价；提高大宗商品交易成本，防止恶意炒作；有关部门深入煤企，为煤炭价格设定“天花板”。游资从看多转为看空，纷纷离场，热度下降，流动性减弱。

Analysts said three reasons for falling steel prices: 1. Under limited production and flood, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places decreased operating rate, coal supply increased coal prices; 2. Excessive coal prices lead to higher downstream procurement costs, resulting in chain reaction, such as power failure, rising industrial production costs; 3. National control coal prices: increase coal supply, investigate hoarding, price raising; increase commodity transaction costs, prevent malicious speculation, relevant departments go into coal enterprises to set a "ceiling" for coal prices.Hot money from bullish to bearish, have left the field, heat decreased, liquidity weakened.

钢价的暴涨，让投资者和投机者赚到了钱，但是对国内基础建设，和工业生产来说是一个难题，因为钢材应用于国家建设，房地产项目开发，家用电器，汽车制造，工业制品，甚至连人人手上拿的手机，都少不了钢材。所以钢材的价格过高，对于普通老百姓的生活和购物也会带来影响，因为生产成本提高了，售价就容易跟随上涨。

The surge in steel prices makes investors and speculators earn money, but it is a difficult problem for domestic infrastructure and industrial production, because steel is used in national construction, real estate project development, household appliances, automobile manufacturing, industrial products, and even mobile phones, are without steel.Therefore, the price of steel is too high, which will also affect the life and shopping of ordinary people, because the production costs increase, the price is easy to follow the rise.

总体来看，未来钢铁需求或将稳中趋降，增速也会出现持续回落，推动整个行业迈上高质量发展轨道。我们国家的应对能力无论是新冠疫情，还是电荒，还是原材料价格，还是粮食和蔬菜的价格，都控制得很好的。

In general, the steel demand may stabilize in the future, and the growth rate will continue to fall, pushing the whole industry to the track of high-quality development.Our country's ability to cope with the COVID-19 epidemic, electricity shortage, raw materials prices, and food and vegetables is well controlled.